Jacked Up Picks: Week 11

Posted by Jack Tumen

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

It’s time for some good old fashioned November football. Great slate of games this week.

Bye weeks: Ravens (6-4), Cowboys (7-3), Jaguars (1-9), Jets (2-8)

Overall Record: 78-52

Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (5-4): This is the best matchup at this point in the season between these two divisional foes in recent memory. Kyle Orton has brought some stability to an offense that’s clearly trying to win now. Miami’s playing a tough brand of football at the right time and fell to a better Lions’ team last week in a close one. The fact that Buffalo couldn’t win an important and close game at home last week vs the Chiefs says a lot about the quality of team they are right now. With Fred Jackson still hurting, this offense simply isn’t the same and will struggle against the Dolphins’ stout defense in a low-scoring Thursday Night matchup. MIA 20, BUF 13

Texans (4-5) @ Browns (6-3): Houston comes off the bye to face the NFC North-leading Browns. Yes; the NFC North-leading Browns. Cudos to Mike Pettine, man. I said at the beginning of the season that he was their best hire since Belichick and that’s more than apparent now. I also said how this team didn’t need Johnny Manziel and that’s proven to be correct as well. Brian Hoyer has made every throw and has managed this team to 6-3 behind a heavy rushing attack. This is a true test at home against a feisty Texans team that’s putting faith in Ryan Mallet as their new starter coming off the bye week. Home field plus a great defense is everything that Cleveland could want going against a first time starter in Mallet. J.J. Watt will need to score for Houston to win. CLE 24, HOU 21

Falcons (3-6) @ Panthers (3-6-1): In case you haven’t figured it out yet, the NFC South is total garbage this year. Both of these teams have predictably regressed behind shoddy offensive lines and are struggling to find continuity. If I’m a Panthers’ fan, I’m calling for Ron Rivera’s head for leaving Cam Newton in that Philly game. That’s atrocious decision making. Unless they plan on drafting another franchise QB in the top 10 next year, that’s no way to treat your former no. 1 overall pick who even admitted he hasn’t felt healthy in a long time. Atlanta comes off a road divisional win so I’ll give them another one here. Bad vibes in Carolina right now. ATL 26, CAR 14

Vikings (4-5) @ Bears (3-6): Well, not too many people saw the Vikings sitting above Chicago in the NFC North standings at this point of the season. All the problems the Bears had last year are simply magnified this season: awful defense and poor offensive line play. Minnesota’s been a tough outing this year for anyone that’s had to face them and they come into this game looking to dig the Bears an even deeper grave. I think it’s time that the Bears get one for morale, though. It’s not gonna be pretty; but I think Brandon Marshall breaks out of his slump and finds the end zone multiple times as the Bears will themselves to a win at home. CHI 23, MIN 20

Bengals (5-3-1) @ Saints (4-5): New Orleans nearly got over the hump last week but showed why they’re not ready for primetime by allowing Colin Kaepernick to complete a ridiculous bomb on 4th & 10 to stay alive and ultimately win the game in OT. Cincinnati’s found rock-bottom at the wrong time, mustering all of three points at home against the Browns last Thursday. Andy Dalton continues to show why he didn’t deserve that contract; he plays fine when no one’s looking but in prime time he implodes. This week, however, no one’s looking. CIN 26, NO 24

Broncos (7-2) @ Rams (3-6): This is the perfect, most unsuspecting trap game of the season. Denver’s coming of a whopping win over Oakland as they saunter into St. Louis thinking “piece of cake.” Meanwhile, Shaun Hill gets the nod at starter after the Austin Davis project fails for the Rams. Chris Long returned to practice this week and although he’s not playing in this one, his energy and leadership give St. Louis a jolt. I’ve loved the Rams all year as my upset special and I’m picking them here to pull off a stunner at home. STL 28, DEN 27

Seahawks (6-3) @ Chiefs (6-3): If you are what your record says you are, then these two teams are equals. That’s hard to believe; but Kansas City has quietly crept it’s way into the playoff race and if the season ended today, they would be the 5th seed in the AFC over the likes of Cinci, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and San Diego. They’re really only one game out of first in the division behind Denver and they’ve tip-toed their way through the first 10 weeks without anyone noticing. Now, the defending champs come to town in a battle of the loudest fan bases. I really think the Chiefs have the best home crowd in football and Seattle will have to deal with noise like they’ve never heard before while on offense. I don’t like this matchup for Seattle and I think they lose important ground here in the NFC Wild Card race. Losing Brandon Mebane for the season is a hugely underrated injury as well. KC 29, SEA 23

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

49ers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6): San Fran did what needed to be done to stay alive last week and win an important game on the road vs N’awlins. The Giants simply didn’t have enough fire-power to keep up with Seattle on the road and predictably lost. Coming back east, though, they get Rashad Jennings back from an injury that should bring much-need stability to this offense. I’m super tempted to say the 9ers are primed for a let-down here…so I will. We get the good Eli in this one. NYG 24, SF 20

Buccaneers (1-8) @ Redskins (3-6): Dare I say Tampa was better off with Greg Schiano and Josh Freeman? Let’s be real, this team is fucking pathetic. I don’t know how Lovie Smith didn’t make this team better but besides the fact that Josh McCown and Mike Glennon both stink, they’ve all but swept former first round pick, Doug Martin, under the carpet in favor of Bobby Rainey and Charles Sims. I’m sad and disappointed by this team and I have no faith in picking them this week against a Redskins team that isn’t very good themselves but other-worldly as far as the NFL goes this season. WAS 19, TB 16

Raiders (0-9) @ Chargers (5-4): Yoo hoo, San Diego, it’s time to wake up now. The Chargers have been asleep for a nice long while and after the bye week they might be ready to play. However, this is an underrated rivalry and Oakland plays the Chargers tough every season. They were barely able to beat the Raiders earlier this year and I think Oakland is hungry for some revenge. If there’s any time to get the first win of the season, it’s now. OAK 22, SD 19

Lions (7-2) @ Cardinals (8-1): A marquee matchup takes place in the desert as the Lions try to continue their tear against Bruce Arians and co. Drew Stanton takes the reins as Carson Palmer’s season is over. However, this team didn’t miss a beat when Stanton had to play earlier this season; he loves this system and has proven to have control of the offense. The Lion’s defense will be their biggest test yet – Detroit hasn’t won pretty this year and I’m still not a fan of Jim Caldwell. You can thank Detroit’s success to D.C., Teryl Austin. But the Lions can win a dog fight, man, and I think they get ‘er done in this big-time showdown. DET 26, AZ 23

Eagles (7-2) @ Packers (6-3): This is the biggest test for Philly all season as they march into Green Bay on the shoulders of Mark Sanchez. Aaron Rodgers has been the league MVP in my opinion and I’m personally disappointed Mike McCarthy didn’t let him break the single-game TD record after tossing 6 in the first half against Chicago. Philly’s ace in the hole has been defense and special teams this season. A big punt return here or a big interception return there have been the difference in so many of these games. One thing Mark Sanchez is that Nick Foles isn’t is a cold weather quarterback. Despite both of their west coast ties, Sanchez won some huge games in his time with the Jets in the icy AFC. I told myself I wouldn’t do it, but I’m going with the Eagles to continue making big plays in all phases of the game to upset Rodgers and gain massive ground in the NFC East. Chip’s a genius. PHI 31, GB 27

Patriots (7-2) @ Colts (6-3): This, by all accounts, is the game of the week. Last generation vs new generation. Brady vs Luck. Lots to look for in this game. Both teams come off the bye week, well rested and ready to rock. This is the Patriots team we all expected to see at this point in the season. The games that New England loses are those in which Brady never gets it going. On the road, however, this is a tough matchup for them. Andrew Luck has been everything and more that we expected him to be. We’re in store for a classic battle, but I’m picking Brady to do what needs to be done to win. I think Adam Vinatieri misses a crucial kick against his old team. NE 30, IND 28

Steelers (6-4) @ Titans (2-7): Well, if there’s any way to stop your own train, it’s by losing to the Jets. A fantastic few weeks come to a screeching halt for Pittsburgh, who suddenly find themselves on the outside looking in. I don’t think this game will be a piece of cake, either. Tennessee will rise to the occasion to give it a fight; but I just can’t pick them against Big Ben. Steelers win ugly…very ugly. PIT 20, TEN 17

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